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Star Power
March 6

We know how shows use celebrities to elevate the ratings of their programming. We're aware of how Boyz II Men propelled Don't Forget The Lyrics to ratings that they have yet to see at that point. However, DFTL has been helped by another star quality - they are after the ratings beast known as American Idol. Also helping from that is The Moment of Truth, which this weeks goes back to it's comfy nest on Wednesdays. How much help will Idol be? And will Orpah Winfrey be the same help with 'Oprah's Big Give'? Let's see what the numbers dictate to us this week...

Wednesday, February 27, 2008
American Idol
1/16/08 - 30.28 Million Viewers (12.6 Mil for 18-49)
1/23/08 - 27.75 Million Viewers (11.1 Mil for 18-49)
1/30/08 - 25.3 Million Viewers (9.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/6/08 - 26.02 Million Viewers (10.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/13/08 - 24.59 Million Viewers (9.8 Mil for 18-49)
2/20/08 - 28.67 Million Viewers (11.1 Mil for 18-49)
2/27/08 - 27.36 Million Viewers (10.4 Mil for 18-49)

One show that doesn't need help is Idol, as they merrily hum along with 25 million plus a week. And no more million dollar mission from Deal or No Deal means that they won't lose 2-3 million eyeballs to NBC.

Deal Or No Deal
1/2/08 - 12.2 Million Viewers
1/9/08 - 13.2 Million Viewers (3.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/16/08 - 11.83 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Week #1)
1/23/08 - 13.76 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Week #2)
1/30/08 - 9.8 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49) (Repeat)
2/6/08 - 8.1 Million Viewers (1.8 Mil for 18-49) (Repeat)
2/13/08 - 10.99 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49) (Non-Repeat)
2/20/08 - 8.93 Million Viewers (2.1 Mil for 18-49)
2/27/08 - 9.39 Million Viewers (2.6 Mil for 18-49)

On the contrary, NBC loses the eyeballs to FOX. With the average viewership hovering around 9 against Idol, you better believe that you'll see the Million Dollar Mission back next season at some point. But what would the effect be if someone actually won the million that way?

America's Next Top Model
2/20/08 -3.8 Million Viewers (1.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/27/08 -3.86 Million Viewers (2.0 Mil for 18-49)

Tyra's show doesn't have to worry. The numbers go up this week, despite being up against both Ryan Seacrest and Howie Mandel. That's better that can be said for the models, and I only see 1 or 2 that are worthy of the title so far.

Big Brother
2/13/08 - 5.81 Million Viewers (2.1 Mil for 18-49) 
2/20/08 - 5.24 Million Viewers (1.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/27/08 - 5.56 Million Viewers (2.1 Mil for 18-49) 

The splitting of the pairs means that CBS is willing to parlay this show out extra long, despite the dismal ratings. It still will fall short of may though, so it wouldn’t surprise me if CBS had other tricks up their sleeves to make the show last longer.

Thursday, February 28, 2008
American Idol
2/21/08 - 23.17 Million Viewers (8.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/28/08 - 25.91 Million Viewers (9.8 Mil for 18-49)

You don't think Idol loves Thursday nights? They almost certainly do, since they can still get a 25 mil+ audience here. And because of that...

Don't Forget the Lyrics
1/10/08 - 6.7 Million Viewers (2.3 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Season Finale)
1/17/08 - 8.77 Million Viewers (3.4 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Goes into Repeat mode)
1/24/08 - NO AIRING
1/31/08 - 10 Million Viewers (3.2 Mil for 18-49) (LOST New Season Debuts)
2/7/08 - 8.57 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49) (REPEAT)
2/14/08 - NO AIRING
2/21/08 - 12.52 Million Viewers (4.8 Mil for 18-49) (BOYZ II MEN and Leadout of American Idol)
2/28/08 - 14.56 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49) (Leadout of American Idol)

…Don’t Forget The Lyrics sees their best ratings ever. So what happens when a show increases almost 50% viewership in 3 weeks?

Lost
2/28/08 - 12.85 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49)

The other shows suffer. Lost now has to sit back and be #2 as they lose to a karaoke Show hosted by Wayne Brady. Think about that for a second. J.J. Abrams can't possibly be a happy camper.

Celebrity Apprentice
1/3/08 - 11 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/10/08 - 8.3 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Season Finale)
1/17/08 - 8.99 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Goes into Repeat mode)
1/24/08 - 8.87 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Goes into Repeat mode)
1/31/08 - 6.87 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49) (LOST New Season Debuts)
2/7/08 - 8.66 Million Viewers (3.3 Mil for 18-49) (LOST)
2/14/08 - 9.09 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (LOST)
2/21/08 - 8.03 Million Viewers (3.2 Mil for 18-49) (LOST) (Vs. an Idol Lead-in)
2/28/08 - 7.62 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49) (LOST) (Vs. an Idol Lead-in)

And neither can the Donald, who sees his show suffer because of the Idol Effect. You still have to endure one more week of this, Donald.

Survivor
2/7/08 - 13.87 Million Viewers (4.8 Mil for 18-49)
2/14/08 - 13.12 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/21/08 - 12.55 Million Viewers (4.0 Mil for 18-49) (AGAINST IDOL)
2/28/08 - 12.47 Million Viewers (4.2 Mil for 18-49) (AGAINST IDOL)

The one show on Thursday night that hasn't had this problem is Survivor. The 18-49 viewership actually goes up from last week. Can they continue to weather the Idol storm?

Friday, February 29, 2008

The Price is Right
2/22/08 -  9.36 Million Viewers (2.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/29/08 -  9.47 Million Viewers (2.2 Mil for 18-49)


So what happens after The Price is Right gives away a million dollars? More people show up. You have to wonder what sort of numbers Drew can get if they are airing this show on any other night besides a weekend night. And you have to wonder how Dennis Miller will fare now that he has to go directly against the Drew machine.

Amne$ia

2/22/08 - 7.55 Million Viewers (2.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/29/08
- 5.1 Million Viewers (1.4 Mil for 18-49)

The answer - not too good. A 33% drop in ratings is not a good sign - and neither is the 5.1 million viewers - especially when it's not against Idol. This is very good news for 1 Vs. 100, which had a 7 against Drew, as Bob Saget and company can use this to argue for another season of that game. But for Dennis Miller's game? Chances are that come May, most people will have amnesia that this show was ever on the air.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Oprah's Big Give
3/2/08 - 15.55 million viewers (5.3 mil for 18-49)

That's a BIG Number for a BIG Give. And you have to think that the number's size is mainly because it has 'Oprah' in the title. It will be very interesting to see if people return for seconds.

Here Come the Newlyweds
3/2/08 - 10.34 million viewers (4.1 mil for 18-49)

The 10 million + sampling audience comes care of Oprah. There's no way that you would have that same audience if it was in any other time slot in any other position. And based on what I saw of the show, it will be very lucky if it comes within sniffing distance of that number next week.

Deal or No Deal
3/2/08 - 8.65 million viewers (2.3 mil for 18-49)

The Oprah effect clearly had an effect here, as DOND has a subpar night. Do you remember after Season 1, when NBC promised that they wouldn't air too many episodes of the show, because it was overkill and they saw what happened to Who Wants To Be a Millionaire? So if that's the case, then please explain to me again why it's airing a 2 hour version on a Sunday?

Big Brother 9
2/17/08 - 6.73 Million Viewers (2.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/24/08 - 5.72 Million Viewers (2.2 Mil for 18-49)
3/2/08 - 6.17 Million Viewers (2.3 Mil for 18-49)

The numbers go up on Big Brother despite going head to head against Oprah. Then again, there's not really much to say there when you're at a 6.17. What could you really say? Whoopie?

Monday, March 3, 2008

Deal or No Deal
1/7/08 - 10.93 Million Viewers
1/14/08 - 15.0 Million Viewers (5.0 Mil for 18-49)
1/21/08 - 14.13 Million Viewers (4.4 Mil for 18-49)
1/28/08 - NO SHOW
2/4/08 - 12.7 Million Viewers (4.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/11/08 - 13.0 Million Viewers (4.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/18/08 - 16.85 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/25/08 - 15.33 Million Viewers (4.2 Mil for 18-49) (Million Dollar Mission Finale)
3/3/08 - 10.80 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49) (Against The Royal Family & at 9pm)

No more Million Dollar Mission? No more 11+ ratings. I'm sure that NBC will be more than happy with a 10, but you'd think that DOND could do better if it wasn't airing every other day. And don't give me the strike as an excuse.

My Dad is Better Than your Dad
2/18/08 - 9.82 Million Viewers (3.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/25/08 - 7.81 Million Viewers (2.8 Mil for 18-49)
3/3/08 - 7.27 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49)(Against The Royal Family)

My Deal is better than your Dan Cortese. The numbers are getting close to 'Danger' numbers at a 7.27. If it goes under 7 next week, that will spell trouble.

The Pussycat Dolls Present: Girl-icious
2/18/08 - 1.77 Million Viewers (0.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/25/08 - 1.72 Million Viewers (0.8 Mil for 18-49)
3/3/08 - 1.69 Million Viewers (0.9 Mil for 18-49)

What's there to say about this, but just use a bad pun? Ok, I will. Instead of loosen up those buttons, just rip the CW off your remote on Monday nights. Yuck.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008
American Idol
1/15/08 - 33.24 Million Viewers (13.8 Mil for 18-49)
1/22/08 - 29.05 Million Viewers (11.7 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - 28.0 Million Viewers (11.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/5/08 - 27.79 Million Viewers (11.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/12/08 - 29.87 Million Viewers (12.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 28.84 Million Viewers (11.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/26/08 - 28.45 Million Viewers (11.0 Mil for 18-49)
3/4/08 - 28.28 Million Viewers (10.45 Mil for 18-49)

The time that the show is on shrinks. The numbers however, don't. And with the billing of this being potentially the best Top 12 ever, I don't expect the numbers to shrink, period.

The Biggest Loser 5
1/1/08 - 8.5-12.72 Million Viewers
1/8/08 - 8.48-12.13 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49)
1/15/08 - 7.28 Million Viewers (3.0 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Premiere)
1/22/08 - (AGAINST IDOL (8-9)) 7.01 Million Viewers (2.9 Mil for 18-49)
1/22/08 - (NOT AGAINST IDOL (9-10)) 10.87 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - (AGAINST IDOL (8-9)) 6.8 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - (NOT AGAINST IDOL (9-10)) 9.7 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/5/08 - 7.9 Million Viewers (3.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/12/08 - 7.47 Million Viewers (3.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 8.15 Million Viewers (3.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/26/08 - 8.07 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49)
3/4/08 - 8.65 Million Viewers (3.6 Mil for 18-49)

The good news is that it gets it's best numbers against Idol ever - mainly because the second half of the show does not go up against it (don't forget, Idol is only on from 8-9pm). The bad news? Idol bloats back up to 2 hours starting next week, so watch the numbers shoot right back down. Sadness.

Big Brother
2/12/08 - 7.3 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 5.42 Million Viewers (2.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/26/08 - 6.74 Million Viewers (2.6 Mil for 18-49)
3/4/08 - 6.65 Million Viewers (2.6 Mil for 18-49)
So Big Brother doesn't go up against Idol at all - and the numbers slightly decrease. That can't possibly be a good sign when it has to go up against Idol next week all over again.

So we've seen the power of Idol, Drew Carey, and  Oprah Winfrey - and boy, are they potent. In 7 days, we see what happens when we get no new shows, which leaves the old ones trying to find momentum. Can they do it?

Gordon Pepper has a trouble with Triples... namely Grandia Xtreme. E-mail him at gordon@gameshownewsnet.com.