The Week That Will Be
January 3
It is the understatement
of the year to say that the AMPTP walking away from the table during
their standoff with the WGA was a gamble. Yes, the scripted programming
will be scarce, but reality shows have held a HUGE chunk of ratings this
past year, and some of the juggernauts will be rolling out their beasts.
Hello, American Idol. Hello, Dancing with the Stars. Hello, America's
Next Top Model. Hello, Crowne…OK, that one, not so much. The next two
weeks will determine whether the AMPTP's gamble was worth the payoff -
or if they will be slinking back to the bargaining table with their tail
tucked between their legs.
This week's Numbers Game, we'll be playing with numbers in a different
angle…
Programming percentage as of January, 2008
ABC - (Out of 22 hours)
Scripted Entertainment - 13 Hours (61%) (2.5 Hours of repeats)
Game Shows - 2 Hours (9%)
Other Reality - 4 Hours (18%)
Other - 3 Hours (Saturday Night Movie) (12%)
ABC has the least to gain - or lose - on game shows, with only 2 hours
worth of them. The only 'new' show is Dance War, and even if that
founders, reality show stalwarts America's Funniest Home Videos, Extreme
Makeover, Wife Swap and Super Nanny shouldn't. No, I'm not forgetting
Dancing With the Stars or The Bachelor, but they doesn't return until
March, and we're talking January right now. This network will probably
be the least affected by the ratings - but will certainly be the most
affected should the strike be prolonged.
CBS - (Out of 22 Hours)
Scripted Entertainment - 14 Hours (66%) (7 Hours of Repeats)
Game Shows - 4 Hours (15%)
Other Reality - 2 Hours (9%)
Other - 2 Hours (Crime Time Repeats) (9%)
Like ABC, CBS also isn't putting much of their stock in reality or game
show programming…yet, though with half of their scripted entertainment
in repeats now, that can change. They have Survivor and Big Brother
lined up for their runs, with another edition of Big Brother arriving in
mid-February. Power of 10 also shows up, but I can't imagine it having
much of an impact against both Deal or No Deal and American Idol in the
Wednesday slot. 60 Minutes and 48 Hours are the other non-scripted
shows, and I expect those to do well. Like ABC, CBS has nothing to worry
about in the short term, but problems loom ahead if the strike hits
Springtime. The only reason why it has a little more breathing room than
ABC is because it can roll out both another hour of Big Brother and Big
Brother After Dark as collateral.
FOX (Out of 15 Hours)
Scripted Entertainment - 8 Hours (53%) (3.5 hours of repeats)
Game Shows - 5 Hours (33%)
Other Reality - 2 Hours (14%)
That rolling sound in the background is FOX about to fire its American
Idol cannon into the crowd of repeats. This is the network that will
benefit the most from the strike, especially during Spring-time, when
Idol will go up against reality-laden programming for sweeps. Add proven
winners '5th Grader' and 'Don't Forget the Lyrics' into the mix, and FOX
is a happy camper. And so what if 'The Moment of Truth' bombs - of all
the networks, FOX has the most number of series in the can - seven -
ready to go at a moment's notice, including Hell's Kitchen 4. With a
healthy mix of both scripted and non-scripted entertainment, FOX looks
like the one to beat in the Spring.
NBC (Out of 22 Hours)
Scripted Entertainment called Law and Order - 5 Hours (23%)
Scripted Entertainment not called Law and Order - 6 Hours (27%) (5 hours
of repeats between them)
Game Shows - 5 Hours (23%)
Other Reality - 2 Hours (9%)
Other - 4 Hours (Are You Ready For Some Football?..or…Are You Ready for
Repurposed weekly shows on Sunday?) (18%)
NBC is going for a huge slate of unproven shows. And for their sake, it
better work - unless they broker a deal with the NFL for the playoffs,
Football is going bye-bye, and while repeats of Monk and Psych are nice,
they probably aren't going to cut it (Knight Rider does not show up
until February). With all of this new programming coming in (Gladiators,
1 vs. 100, The Apprentice), this could either be a major gamble that
pays off - or an unmitigated disaster.
The CW (Out of 13 Hours)
Scripted Entertainment - 8 Hours (61%) (2 hours of repeats)
Game Shows - 3 Hours (23%) (2 hours of repeats)
Other - 2 Hours (Smackdown) (16%)
Now we get to the lightweights. Almost 40% of the CW's shows are not
scripted. Unfortunately for them, 60% of that is Crowned, which has been
crowned in the ratings. Who would have thought that Vince McMahon may be
needed to provide more programming to save a network. Scary. In what has
been a very disappointing season so far, you'd have to think that the CW
are hoping that Tyra Banks can bring America's Next Top Model back with
a 32 week season.
MyNetwork TV (Out of 12 hours)
Scripted Entertainment - 0 Hours (0%)
Game Shows - 1 Hour (8%) (a repeat at Meet My Folks)
Other Reality - 6 Hours (50%)
Other - 5 Hours (Movies, Various) (42%)
The only reason why we're even mentioning this 'network' is because 1.
It has a game show (Meet My Folks and then the soon to be unleashed
Paradise Hotel) and 2. The strike could actually HELP them… if they stay
on the air that long to reap any benefits out of it. Note to executives:
1. Telenovelas - not a good idea. 2. All reality, all the time - also
not a good idea.
Total (Out of 94 Hours, and not including MyNetwork, which really
doesn't count)
Scripted Entertainment - 54 Hours (57%)
Game Shows - 19 Hours (20%)
Other Reality - 10 Hours (11%)
Other - 11 Hours (Movies, Various) (12%)
So out of the networks, we have 57% of shows being scripted, but if you
take out the 22 hours of repeated programming and 4 hours of repeat game
shows and movies, you only have 32 hours of Scripted programming, vs. 36
hours of non-scripted programming. So if you want to watch something
new, more than half the time, it will be a game or reality show. And if
this strike keeps going on, expect the numbers to skewer well into the
non-scripted programming area.
Will the trend stay like that? Only if the ratings warrant it. Join us
in seven days for possibly the most important week of game show ratings
ever.
Gordon Pepper has the light for the Idol Cannon ready in his hot little
hands. Tell him to fire at
gordon@gameshownewsnet.com. |