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The Trouble with Sweeps
February 21

With another week gone by in February Sweeps, we look to see what has transpired. The networks love to make shows bigger during this time period - especially finales, because this month sets the advertising rates. The higher the ratings, the more you can reasonably command, and the richer a network can be. Conversely, a disappointing show can cost a network millions. And if you think February is bad, just wait until May. But we'll get to that in a few months.

What we'll get to now is what the networks will do to capitalize on said sweeps. Plaster Deal Or No Deal all around the schedule? Check. Make the Gladiators Finale 2 hours and put it on Sunday? Check. Extend Idol out to 3 nights? Check. Dangle the new list of Dancing With the Stars Celebrities like a carrot to entice people to watch the end of Dance Wars? Check. Air new game show programming? Check. Some of these ideas worked. Some...not so much. Right now, it's time to see what the viewers liked - and didn't like - this week.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

American Idol
1/16/08 - 30.28 Million Viewers (12.6 Mil for 18-49)
1/23/08 - 27.75 Million Viewers (11.1 Mil for 18-49)
1/30/08 - 25.3 Million Viewers (9.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/6/08 - 26.02 Million Viewers (10.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/13/08 - 24.59 Million Viewers (9.8 Mil for 18-49)

A chunk of you wanted to see who was in the Top 24. The numbers are still slipping a little, but anywhere from 24-26 does seem to be the key number - a number that FOX will gladly take.

The Moment of Truth
1/23/08 - 23.2 Million Viewers (10.2 Mil for 18-49)
1/30/08 - 17.9 Million Viewers (7.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/6/08 - 16.9 Million Viewers (7.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/13/08 - 14.47 Million Viewers (6.2 Mil for 18-49)

The Moment of Truth is still by far the highest new series, but FOX can't be too happy that the numbers are still going downward. The real moment of truth will be what happens when it shows up in March against Deal or No Deal with no help from American Idol. You will see the numbers dip, but if it can maintain a 10 or better, FOX will be happy.

Deal Or No Deal
1/2/08 - 12.2 Million Viewers
1/9/08 - 13.2 Million Viewers (3.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/16/08 - 11.83 Million Viewers (3.1 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Week #1)
1/23/08 - 13.76 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Week #2)
1/30/08 - 9.8 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49) (Repeat)
2/6/08 - 8.1 Million Viewers (1.8 Mil for 18-49) (Repeat)
2/13/08 - 10.99 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49) (Non-Repeat)

Part of DOND's problem on why it didn't do better this week was a  that it was going up against Idol. Another part is that everyone knew that the million was not going to be awarded (thanks, once again, to NBC's website). Will it be awarded next Monday? It's the 'last chance' to do it...

Big Brother
2/13/08 - 5.81 Million Viewers (2.1 Mil for 18-49) (Non-Repeat)

The good news (not that there is much of one if you're only going to score a 5.81) is that it did better than Power of 10's last episode (3.88) or the repeats (4.9) and it's cheaper than either of them to air. The bad news - and there is plenty - is that with those numbers, along with the vapid (and bordering on Forever Eden-Level) cast, you can expect the show to only last until CBS gets their scripted programming back on track. Then it's time to be exiled in the Summer for the normal edition.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Survivor
2/7/08 - 13.87 Million Viewers (4.8 Mil for 18-49)
2/14/08 - 13.12 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)

With very minimal erosion, Survivor, which won the hour against a new Deal or No Deal, is still CBS's workhorse. How will it do next week against an Idol results show?

Deal or No Deal
2/7/08 -  9.31 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49) (Against 5th Grader and Survivor)
2/14/08 - 12.04 Million Viewers (3.4 Mil for 18-49) (Against Survivor)

Despite losing to Survivor, DOND more than holds it's own and does better than yesterday's edition against American Idol. But do they really want to burn an original DOND against an American Idol results show next week? Time will tell...

NAACP Awards
3.9 Million Viewers (1.4 Mil for 18-49)

How's this for a Thursday Night Turnaround for FOX - a show like this would usually do better than what would usually be here on Thursday nights, but thanks to the 5th Grader and Don't Forget the Lyrics combo, this is actually around 60% lower in ratings. Still, Bravo to FOX for celebrating the NAACP's Achievements and the achievements of others during African-American Month - a month who's representation has been conspicuously absent off of the other network's prime time schedule. Boo, other networks.

Celebrity Apprentice
1/3/08 - 11 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/10/08 - 8.3 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Season Finale)
1/17/08 - 8.99 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Goes into Repeat mode)
1/24/08 - 8.87 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (Gray's Anatomy Goes into Repeat mode)
1/31/08 - 6.87 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49) (LOST New Season Debuts)
2/7/08 - 8.66 Million Viewers (3.3 Mil for 18-49) (LOST)
2/14/08 - 9.09 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49) (LOST)

The more convoluted Lost gets, the more people come watch The Apprentice, who gets the best ratings since the first episode. I just seriously hope that NBC doesn't even think about putting it back in this slot next year against a non-repeat of CSI.

Friday, February 15, 2008

1 vs. 100
1/4/08 - 8.59 Million Viewers
1/11/08 - 7.69 Million Viewers (1.9 Mil for 18-49)
1/18/08 - 7.16 Million Viewers (1.8 Mil for 18-49)
1/25/08 - 8.44 Million Viewers (2.2 Mil for 18-49) (Unopposed)
2/1/08 - 7.87 Million Viewers (2.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/8/08 - 7.1 Million Viewers (1.7 Mil for 18-49) (Unopposed)
2/15/08 - 7.54 Million Viewers (1.8 Mil for 18-49) (Unopposed)

It's holding steady at around 7, which is decent for a Friday night. we're all holding our breath to see what happens when it runs into the first of The Price is Right's Million Dollar Spectaculars. I'm guessing nothing good.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

American Gladiators
1/7/08 - 10.73 Million Viewers
1/14/08 - 10.66 Million Viewers (4.6 Mil for 18-49)
1/21/08 - 10.08 Million Viewers (4.3 Mil for 18-49)
1/28/08 - 8.4 Million Viewers (3.5 Mil for 18-49) (NOT AIRED IN ALL OF AMERICA)
2/4/08 - 9.5 Million Viewers (3.3 Mil for 18-49)
2/11/08 - 8.8 Million Viewers (3.7 Mil for 18-49)
2/17/08 - Finale Part 1 - 6.19 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/17/08 - Finale Part 2 - 8.47 Million Viewers (3.8 Mil for 18-49)
2/17/08 - Knight Rider - 12.75 Million Viewers (5.0 Mil for 18-49)

So NBC decided that 1. The American Public wanted 2 Hours worth of finale, 2. They would flock over to Sundays to see it and 3. It would be a nice lead-in boost for the Knight Rider movie. The American Public responded by saying 1. We don't want 2 hours worth of fluff, so we'll skip the first half altogether, making it the lowest watched hour in the series, 2. We did watch the winner, but you would have gotten better numbers if you kept us on Monday and 3...ok, we watched Knight Rider, but we probably would have, regardless of if the finale was there or not. A sweeps trick that backfired.

Big Brother 9
2/17/08 - 6.73 Million Viewers (2.2 Mil for 18-49)

Amazing Race this isn't. Still, it was right behind all of the other networks and would have beaten American Gladiators in it's first hour. The numbers next weekend will give us a clearer picture as to what direction it's heading in.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Deal or No Deal
1/7/08 - 10.93 Million Viewers
1/14/08 - 15.0 Million Viewers (5.0 Mil for 18-49)
1/21/08 - 14.13 Million Viewers (4.4 Mil for 18-49)
1/28/08 - NO SHOW
2/4/08 - 12.7 Million Viewers (4.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/11/08 - 13.0 Million Viewers (4.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/18/08 - 16.85 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49)

The one good thing about moving Gladiators to Sunday is that Deal or No Deal's numbers markedly shot upwards. 13 Million Dollar Cases will do that to a show. With the 'Last Chance' episode conveniently airing on the last day of February Sweeps, expect the number to rise even higher. Of course, with the numbers going up here, that means that the numbers had to come down somewhere else...

Dance Wars
1/7/08 - 10.97 Million Viewers
1/14/08 - 10.50 Million Viewers (2.9 Mil for 18-49)
1/21/08 - 9.86 Million Viewers (2.6 Mil for 18-49)
1/28/08 - 9.3 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/4/08 - 9.8 Million Viewers (2.5 Mil for 18-49)
2/11/08 - 9.1 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49)
2/18/08 - 9.1 Million Viewers (2.4 Mil for 18-49)

And I'm guessing they were siphoned from Dance Wars, which does not get the boost they were looking for from the announcement of the new stars. If anything, all it did was stop the bleeding to a show that was way too bloated to be 2 hours long. I'll credit the strike to how this show didn't drop to ratings of Grease or Fame magnitude.

Welcome to the Captain (CBS)
2/18/08 - 5.45 Million Viewers (2.0 Mil for 18-49)

It also siphoned the audience from CBS's show, as they drop a good 20% from week #1 to week #3 of the show. So why am I pointing this out? Because I have gotten email this week asking me if Big Brother is going to get yanked. The answer is no. Why? Because of this. Big Brother is doing better than CBS's new high-advertised show. At least Big Brother is against Idol. WTTC is pulling a 5.45...against Dance Wars. There's nothing that CBS can put there that will match what it's getting with Big Brother. When everything is going to get pummelled in the Wednesday at 8pm time slot, you put in the cheapest option you can - and that would be Big Brother. And that's why BB will not get yanked - at least until May.

The Pussycat Dolls Present: Girl-icious
2/18/08 - 1.77 Million Viewers (0.9 Mil for 18-49)

DOND also siphoned away from the Pussycat Dolls, as the show makes a less than pleasant debut. How bad is it? Well, remember this?

Crowned
1/9/08 - 1.8 Million Viewers (0.8 Mil for 18-49)

Crowned's first week did BETTER than Pussycat Dolls 2. PCD2 needs to be moved to Wednesdays or it may start to see some of it's nine lives biting the dust. Then again, Crowned is 'supposedly' getting renewed, so what do I know.

So with all this damage cause by DOND, you have to think that My Dad is Better Than Your Dad will get a very nice sampling, right?

My Dad is Better Than your Dad
2/18/08 - 9.82 Million Viewers (3.5 Mil for 18-49)

Well, it depends on how you look at it. The 9.82 beats Dance war, but the show loses almost 50% of it's audience out of Deal or No Deal. Add the plodding pace and the cloying nature of both the show and the contestants, and I think we'll be looking at a steep drop next week. The show suffers from the same problem that My Kind of Town did and what I'm afraid Amne$ia is going to - you can't play along if the show is a giant in-joke with not enough juice for you to be a willing voyeur.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

American Idol
1/15/08 - 33.24 Million Viewers (13.8 Mil for 18-49)
1/22/08 - 29.05 Million Viewers (11.7 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - 28.0 Million Viewers (11.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/5/08 - 27.79 Million Viewers (11.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/12/08 - 29.87 Million Viewers (12.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 28.84 Million Viewers (11.2 Mil for 18-49)

For all of that controversy about the 'artists with contracts' did little to affect the ratings of the show. One thing to note though - the week's total number of votes was 28 million, which is a nice number - but down more than 10% from the 32 million at this point last year. The lesser the votes, the more impact that a group could have in determining an outcome. Just saying...

The Biggest Loser 5
1/1/08 - 8.5-12.72 Million Viewers
1/8/08 - 8.48-12.13 Million Viewers (5.2 Mil for 18-49)
1/15/08 - 7.28 Million Viewers (3.0 Mil for 18-49) (IDOL Premiere)
1/22/08 - (AGAINST IDOL (8-9)) 7.01 Million Viewers (2.9 Mil for 18-49)
1/22/08 - (NOT AGAINST IDOL (9-10)) 10.87 Million Viewers (4.5 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - (AGAINST IDOL (8-9)) 6.8 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49)
1/29/08 - (NOT AGAINST IDOL (9-10)) 9.7 Million Viewers (3.9 Mil for 18-49)
2/5/08 - 7.9 Million Viewers (3.2 Mil for 18-49)
2/12/08 - 7.47 Million Viewers (3.0 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 8.15 Million Viewers (3.4 Mil for 18-49)

So against the live performances of the men in American Idol, the numbers of the show grew? That's great news for TBL, and it justifies their renewal, as they have found something that will not get wiped out by American Idol. Now all they have to do is keep those numbers.

Big Brother
2/12/08 - 7.3 Million Viewers (2.7 Mil for 18-49)
2/19/08 - 5.42 Million Viewers (2.0 Mil for 18-49)

And TBL is also doing better than Big Brother, who clearly is not ready for Prime Time. It will average around a 5, which is what almost every show is doing against Idol (See WTTC, Jericho, etc.). So unless CBS wants to run repeats of CSI and NCIS from Tuesdays to Thursdays for the next 4 months, these are the numbers CBS is going to get.

So that's what sweeps has done so far. If you're Deal or No Deal, that's good news. If you're Dance Wars, Gladiators or Girl-icious, not so good. If you're 1 Vs. 100 or Sunday Big Brother, the jury is out until next week.

As for said next week: We note Dennis, Drew and Tyra coming to town, we see what 3 days of Idol does to the schedule, and we look ahead to the networks in March, now that some of their scripted programming will be coming back. Join us in 7 days to see what we can make out of this.

Gordon Pepper has a trouble with Triples... namely Grandia Xtreme. E-mail him at gordon@gameshownewsnet.com.