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Haterade's American Idol
Primer: 2009 Edition
February 16
Welcome to Haterade's American
Idol 2009 Primer. Last year, Haterade predicted the finals to
be David Archuleta Vs. Syesha Mercado, which is pretty good
considering that they both got into the Top 3. He also had a
75% accuracy rating with the primer.
Of course this year's going to be a little trickier. Because
of the way the rules work, we could have an uneven number of
male and female contestants. In fact, based on the
overwhelming strength of the males this season, I believe that
is going to happen. Here are my selections, which are
guaranteed not to be perfect, but which will hopefully shed
some insight as to who you may see in the months to come.
The Men
Adam Lambert
Where you've seen him: San Francisco Auditions (January 20th)
with his Queen impersonator audition kit.
Where else you may have seen him: Performed in a Los Angeles
Production of Wicked in 2007. Singing in the final Hollywood
auditions on February 10. He was also at The Ten Commandments
at the Kodak Theatre with Val Kilmer.
Why he's here: He's this year's Constantine Maroulis.
Pre-season Verdict: And like Constantine, I expect him to go
far. He has a niche that the contestants don't have and he has
a fan base thanks to his musicals. He's a Top 12 lock and he
could wind up as far as where Constantine wound up.
Alexander Wagner-Trugman
Where you've seen him: Phoenix Auditions (January 13) with his
moldy closet
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions (February 4) as a member of Action Squad - he and
Anne Marie Boskovich advanced to the round of 36.
Why he's here: He managed to get past horror director Cody
Sheldon in a sing-off that can only be described as 'Gory'.
Pre-season Verdict: He may want to be cast by Cody as the
first victim, because that's what he's probably going to be.
Anoop Desai
Where you've seen him: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with his barbecue sauce recipe.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) with a nice Stevie Wonder song. Sings
'My Perogative' on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10). He
is part of UNC's vocal group The Clef Hangers. Also, his
recipe and college theories on said subject are out on the
internet for everyone to see.
Why he's here: He's the best pure pop singer since the
aforementioned Aiken.
Pre-season Verdict: Not only has he gotten screen time, but
every screen time has featured him nailing a song. no missteps
so far, and that means not only Top 12, but Final 4 and a
chance to win the whole thing. But will America vote for an
American Idol winner who is Indian?
Brent Keith Smith
Where you've seen him: Louisville Auditions (January 21) with
his Nashville Star teeth.
Where else you may have seen him: Besides his traveling
musician tour, he was on Nashville Star: Season 2, and
finished in 6th.
Why he's here: We haven't seen a lot of him, but I'm guessing
the same qualities that got him on Nashville Star.
Pre-season Verdict: In the old system, the Nashville Star
experience would have been very useful. In this system, where
you have to sing your way in, not so much. He needs a good
draw, but I can see him getting in as a Wild Card. As for
singers getting to Idol via other shows, the results have been
both good (David Archuleta, Syesha Mercado) and bad (Jason
Yeager). I expect Brent to fall in the middle.
Danny Gokey
Where you've seen him: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with his deceased wife and the deceased chances of best friend
Jamar Rogers.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) singing Seal, The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions singing a capella with Taylor Vaifanua. Sings 'I
Hope You Dance' on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why he's here: He's got a great screen voice and has hogged up
the camera time to go along with Anoop Desai.
Pre-season Verdict: Another lock for the Top 12. I think his
voice, combined with his back story, will get very far in this
competition. Between him and Desai, the first person to
diversify his portfolio will have a major heads up in this
competition.
Jorge Nunez
Where you've seen him: NYC/Puerto Rico Auditions (January 29)
with a dual language audition.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) singing Jon Secada's Angel nicely.
Sings again on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why he's here: He's the lone Latino male in the competition.
Pre-season Verdict: American Idol has never had a male Latino
singer win the competition. It won't happen this year either,
but Jorge could sneak into the Top 12 with a spectacular song
and a good draw.
J'Not Joyner
Where you've seen him: Singing 'Delilah' on The Final
Hollywood Round (February 10).
Where else you may have seen him: Last year's American Idol
auditions, where he was cut. According to a bio, he has been a
part of 6 albums.
Why he's here: He has a very soulful R&B voice.
Pre-season Verdict: He's competing against Stephen Fowler and
Jorge Nunez for the final spot in the Top 12.
Kai Kalama
Where you've seen him: San Francisco Auditions (January 20th)
with his burnt out voice and scratchy guitar.
Where else you may have seen him: We see the burnt out voice
in action while trying to get through 'Nothing At All' on the
Final Hollywood Round (February 10). He's also in a band
called 'Off White'.
Why he's here: Him and his guitar bring a 'Hootie' and the
Blowfish-styled singer to the show.
Pre-season Verdict: The problem is that when you've seen him
on the show, it's because his voice was blown out. That does
not deem well for him on the show if he gets to the Top 12 -
which I don't think is going to happen.
Kris Allen
Where you've seen him: Louisville Auditions (January 21) in a
10 second cameo.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions (February 4) as a member of White Chocolate - he and
Matt Giraud advanced to the round of 36.
Why he's here: A good showing on White Chocolate plus a baby
face and a pure tone.
Pre-season Verdict: He's going to be competing against Brent
Keith for the country vote and a Wild Card spot. I don't think
he gets it, but he'll come close.
Matt Breitzke
Where you've seen him: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with his welding tools.
Where else you may have seen him: Singing for his life against
Michael Sarver on February 11th's show.
Why he's here: Along with Michael, a great story line, despite
average vocals.
Pre-season Verdict: The nice story line can only carry you so
far. If he is put against singers not in his league - which I
suspect he will be - the story line ends well before the Top
12.
Matt Giraud
Where you've seen him: Louisville Auditions (January 21) with
his dueling piano
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions (February 4) as a member of White Chocolate - he and
Kris Allen advanced to the round of 36. He also released an
album called 'Mind, Body, and Soul'.
Why he's here: The piano did him good, as did the voice. White
Chocolate certainly helped him out.
Pre-season Verdict: It's going to depend on the draw. If he
gets a weak field, he's in great shape. If he's in a duel
between himself and blind keyboardist Scott McIntyre, that's
one battle he can't win.
Michael Sarver
Where you've seen him: Phoenix Auditions (January 13) with his
oil rig.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) singing Gavin DeGraw, and has his own
'One Man Band' called The Screaming Skulls. If you go to his
church, you can see him singing in the choir.
Why he's here: Got in with Matt Breitzke in a staged 'Sing For
Your Life' round although neither person was in jeopardy.
Pre-season Verdict: He'll be in Jeopardy when he hits the
semi-finals, and he needs to bet it all on a Daily Double.
Unfortunately, he's going up against the Ken Jennings and
David Madden's of the world, which means he's going to walk
out of Idol with the consolation equivalent of $1,000 and a
year's worth of Rice-A-Roni.
Nathaniel Marshall
Where you've seen him: The Hollywood Round Line Auditions
(February 3) with headband, a tie, a T-shirt, flip-flops, two
lip piercings, and tattoos up and down his arms.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions (February 4), being the guy in Team Compromise
separating Kristin and Nancy. Sings an acoustic version of 'Disturbia'
on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10). He's also
plastered all over YouTube and he's done small shows all over
the NYC area.
Why he's here: He gets past Jackie Midkiff in a Sing For Your
Life challenge on February 11th's show. Someone needs to be
the new Danny Noriega.
Pre-season Verdict: Openly gay singers who have a history of
histrionics do not make the Top 12. And I'm not being mean
here - openly gay singers have to get the vote of The Bible
Belt, which would rather vote for Hilary Clinton for
Anti-Abortion specialist. Make the reservations for The Ellen
show and Rosie O'Donnell's cruise lines (which frankly, is not
a bad gig if you can get it).
Nick Mitchell
Where you've seen him: NYC/Puerto Rico Auditions (January 29)
along with Norman Gentle and whatever other personalities he
decides to bring with him.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) being fierce. Mutilated 'Georgia on My
Mind' in the Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why he's here: He has a very sparkling alter ego called Norman
Gentle who captivated the judges and who is here to captivate
America. Notice I haven't said anything about his singing.
Pre-season Verdict: The producers of American Idol are playing
with fire here. Vote For The Worst is going to mobilize a
small army to get Nick in. And with the voting thinned out
between 12 people, they may get their wish. Add the fact that
he may attract a Sanjaya-like kiddie crowd with his antics,
and this flame may come back to burn Idol. Not only can he
make the Top 12, he actually has the voice that he can win the
whole thing. If that happens, then American Idol is finished.
Ricky Braddy
Where you've seen him: Says hi to us on The Final Hollywood
Round (February 10).
Where else you may have seen him: He's done voiceovers or
various commercials.
Why he's here: (shrugs) He looks good in glasses and a
fauxhawk?
Pre-season Verdict: Hi Ricky. If you don't sing lights out,
then don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Scott MacIntyre
Where you've seen him: Phoenix Auditions (January 13) with his
visually impaired cane.
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) with a nice song. Sings 'Home' on The
Final Hollywood Round (February 10). He also has had an album
out, been on umpteenth tv shows and has his own music store on
the web.
Why he's here: He's a good keyboardist and although the
visually impaired singer story line has been played to death,
it's still really impressive.
Pre-season Verdict: Top 12 lock. However, his vocals are not
as strong as some of the other contenders, and he's going to
be the major upset when he gets stopped much earlier than
planned.
Stephen Fowler
Where you've seen him: On the Final Hollywood show (February
10) destroying a keyboard.
Where else you may have seen him: On the last show (February
11) lamenting about what he did to said keyboard. I think the
keyboard needs to sue for unnecessary cruelty.
Why he's here: The judges selected him over Jamar Rogers for
an R&B slot.
Pre-season Verdict: The audience is going to make the judges
pay for that. In a backlash, Stephen is not going to get in
via the vote. He will be a main candidate for a Wild Card spot
and may get in that way so the judges can justify their pick
of him on the show, but if he does, I can see an early Top 12
flameout.
Von Smith
Where you've seen him: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with his YouTube Videos
Where else you may have seen him: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) getting trashed by Simon. In addition
to YouBoob, he's been on The View
Why he's here: he grew up very quickly during Hollywood week,
going from self-indulgent and over-theatrical to mature and
powerful.
Pre-season Verdict: The American Idol winner has always been
someone who's solid at the beginning, and while not a
contender early, works their way to that status. Von Smith
fits that profile, and with a massive internet base, is going
to be one to watch. Top 12 lock and a serious threat to win
the whole thing.
The Women
Alexis Grace
Where you've seen her: Louisville Auditions (January 21) with
her 2 year old daughter.
Where else you may have seen her: Sings 'Before He Cheats' on
The Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why she's here: She's a country rocker with a nice image.
Pre-season Verdict: It really depends on the draw. She has a
shot if she's not against some of the heavyweights. I don't
see her getting to the Wild Card round, but she has a chance
if she sings out.
Allison Iraheta
Where you've seen her: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with her 10 second cameo clip.
Where else you may have seen her: She's been in a few
commercials.
Why she's here: (shrugs) The judges likes her commercial
effort?
Pre-season Verdict: No TV exposure + no fan base = potential
first week exit should she not pull a Latoya London.
Anne Marie Boskovich
Where you've seen her: Jacksonville Auditions (January 27)
with her nanny to superstar transformation
Where else you may have seen her: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions (February 4) as a member of Action Squad - she and
Alex Wagner-Trugman advanced to the round of 36. Sings an 'I
Hope You Dance' on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
She also sang "God Bless America" prior to the 2003 NBA
All-Star game. She's also included on the soundtrack for the
direct-to-video release of The Little Mermaid II: Return to
the Sea.
Why she's here: Despite her stint on Action Squad, redeemed
herself with 'I Hope You Dance' in the last round.
Pre-season Verdict: She's got the voice. She's got the look.
Being a member of Action Squad will hurt her, but she could
find her way in via a Wild Card.
Arianna Ayesha Afsar
Where you've seen her: Phoenix Auditions (January 13) with her
'Adopt-a-Grandfriend' campaign
Where else you may have seen her: If you're a beauty pageant
fan, she may look familiar. She's won a number of them.
Why she's here: The grandmothers of the world told the judges
that if she didn't make it, they'd beat them with their
walkers.
Pre-season Verdict: The grannies need to come out en masse, or
first round is as far as she's going.
Casey Carlson
Where you've seen her: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with her bubble tea.
Where else you may have seen her: Bombing her last song on The
Final Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why she's here: ...The judges like Bubble Tea?
Pre-season Verdict: That bubble tea better have some really
strong anti-oxidant power for her throat, or she's leaving
early.
Jackie Tohn
Where you've seen her: NYC/Puerto Rico Auditions (January 29)
with her raspy voice and blown out window.
Where else you may have seen her: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) being wild, and she has appeared on
shows like The Sopranos, Veronica Mars, and Angel. She also
released an EP in 2005 and has another album called
'Beguiling'.
Why she's here: The raspy voice won the judges over.
Pre-season Verdict: I think she wins America over also, but
she could be on the bubble between getting out and getting in.
She gets in if America says no to Del Toro.
Jasmine Murray
Where you've seen her: Jacksonville Auditions (January 27)
with her 18 member family.
Where else you may have seen her: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3) being nasally, The Hollywood Round
Group Auditions (February 4), surviving a stint in a group
with Bikini Girl, and singing really flat on The Final
Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why she's here: The judges gave her a reward for having to
deal with Bikini Girl for a week.
Pre-season Verdict: When you're in the same breath as Bikini
Girl, that's trouble. When all you've been in the tv clips is
excessively flat, that's even more trouble. Must produce in
round 1 or she's toast, which goes very nice with Jasmine.
Jeanine Vailes
Where you've seen her: The finals announcement (February 11).
Where else you may have seen her: Not much of a career at 16
years old.
Why she's here: She's got nice hair?
Pre-season Verdict: Being on American Idol for 3 hours is a
great story to tell the kids before going back to school.
Jessica Langseth
Where you've seen her: The finals announcement, in a sing-off
(February 11).
Where else you may have seen her: Maybe not her, but her
brother - Grammy award winner Johnny Lang.
Why she's here: (Shrugs) Maybe Johnny Lang blackmailed SImon
Cowell with pictures of him and Ryan Seacrest hanging out in
Corey Clark's apartment.
Pre-season Verdict: It is a massive strike against you when
you sing in a sing-off and Simon is forced to put you in the
Top 36. She must sing lights out or it will be her lights that
get snuffed.
Felicia Barton
Where you've seen her: Louisville Auditions (January 21) with
a thank you note to Joanna Pacitti for having too many friends
in 19 Entertainment.
Where else you may have seen her: The Finals announcement
(February 11) being booted by the judges. Bad judges. Bad bad
bad.
Why she's here: Joanna Pacitti and 4 dumb judges who
originally thought that a person with connections who got
every song that we saw her sing wrong would be better than
Felicia.
Pre-season Verdict: Welcome back to the competition, Felicia.
Now get out.
Kendall Beard
Where you've seen her: NYC/Puerto Rico Auditions (January 29)
with her Texas degree auditioning in Puerto Rico...huh?
Where else you may have seen her: Sings 'Before He Cheats' on
The Final Hollywood Round (February 10). She also released a
self-titled album in 2007.
Why she's here: She's a ray of sunshine and sings fairly well,
to boot.
Pre-season Verdict: She has a shot to be in the Top 12, but
she must produce in the early rounds.
Kristen McNamara
Where you've seen her: The Hollywood Round Group Auditions
(February 4), being the other woman in Team Compromises circle
with Nathaniel and Nancy.
Where else you may have seen her: Sings 'Because of You' on
The Final Hollywood Round (February 10). She also came in 6th
place during Season 4 of Nashville Star.
Why she's here: She has an amazing set of lungs, which she
showed off in her sing off over Jennifer Corby.
Pre-season Verdict: One of the girls that has gotten a lot of
face time. If she picks the right song and harnesses her voice
for the power of good, she has a legitimate shot to make the
Top 12.
Lil Rounds
Where you've seen her: Kansas City Auditions (January 14th)
with her tornado-demolished house and her Latoya London
look-a-like hairdo.
Where else you may have seen her: The Hollywood Round Line
Auditions (February 3). Sings 'Nothing At All' on The Final
Hollywood Round (February 10).
Why she's here: The best R&B singer in the group. Reminds us
of LaToya London and Fantasia Barino, without the nasal back
tone.
Pre-season Verdict: Top 12 Lock. She has the perfect
combination of great voice and heartwarming back story. She
will go very, very far and I think she may be the last woman
standing.
Megan Corkrey
Where you've seen her: Salt Lake City Auditions (January 28)
with her designer fonts
Where else you may have seen her: Do they have singing fonts?
Why she's here: She's got a nice voice...
Pre-season Verdict: ...which wasn't showcased at all. That's
going to spell trouble for her and she's another person who's
in a sing or you're done situation.
Mishavonna Henson
Where you've seen her: Showing up and saying hi on The Final
Hollywood Round (February 10).
Where else you may have seen her: Last season, before she was
cut.
Why she's here: She obviously improved from last season.
Pre-season Verdict: But because she has gotten almost zero
screen time this year, I don't think she improved enough
unless she is amazing when we hear from her.
Stevie Wright
Where you've seen her: Phoenix Auditions (January 13) with her
Stevie Nicks doll.
Where else you may have seen her: Sings on The Final Hollywood
Round (February 10).
Why she's here: She's got a pure voice.
Pre-season Verdict: It depends on where they put here. I think
she's got a huge mountain to climb, and the climb may be too
steep.
Taylor Vaifanua
Where you've seen her: Salt Lake City Auditions (January 28)
with her hula dancing (drool)
Where else you may have seen her: The Hollywood Round Group
Auditions singing a capella with Danny Gokey. Also, was in a
bit part in High School Musical 2 and was part of a local
singing group called 4 Real.
Why she's here: She can sing a ton. And the looks don't hurt,
as she's a tall drink of water.
Pre-season Verdict: I think she may be good to go for the Top
12, not just because of how good she is, but also how weak the
women's field is as well. I expect her in the Wild Card round
if she gets stuck in a draw with Lil Rounds.
Tatiana Del Toro
Where you've seen her: San Francisco Auditions (January 20th)
with her psychic
Where else you may have seen her: In Puerto Rico, because
that's where she REALLY auditioned. Bad, bad video editors.
Also in The Hollywood Round Group Auditions (February 4)
causing drama, and the Hollywood Round Final Auditions
(February 5), causing even more drama. Sings 'I'm Your Baby
Tonight' on The Final Hollywood Round (February 10). She also
released an album in 2004 and apparently has sung for the
Governor of Puerto Rico. Que Bueno!
Why she's here: Her psychic said so.
Pre-season Verdict: At the beginning of the season, her
psychic said that Tatiana would make the Top 12.
Unfortunately, I think her psychic may be absolutely right,
for 3 reasons. 1. She does have a great sexy voice and a nice
following in Puerto Rico. 2. Vote for the Worst, after
mobilizing a small army for Nick Mitchell, will re-order up
the troops to march to Tatiana's rescue and 3. The women's
field is probably the second weakest that I've seen (with only
last season's crop to be worse.). In terms of performance, and
I'm being dead serious here, Tatiana may have one of the best
6 female voices in this competition. There, I said it. Please
reserve a room for me with those nice happy rubber white
suits.
So to sum this up...
Top 12
Adam Lambert
Anoop Desai
Brent Keith Smith
Danny Gokey
Kristen McNamara
Lil Rounds
Nick Mitchell
Scott MacIntyre
Jorge Nunez
Von Smith
Tatiana Del Toro
Taylor Vaifanua
Bubbling Under Or Just gets In:
Kris Allen
Stephen Fowler
J'Not Joyner
Anne Marie Boskovich
Jackie Tohn
Kendall Beard
Top 6
Adam Lambert
Anoop Desai
Danny Gokey
Kristen McNamara
Lil Rounds
Von Smith
Final 4
Anoop Desai
Danny Gokey
Lil Rounds
Von Smith
Finals
Lil Rounds
Von Smith
Winner
Von Smith
The fun starts next week.
Gordon Pepper, having written this for
YesButNoButYes.com, has American Idol down to a science. E-mail him to
gordon@gameshownewsnet.com.
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